RESEARCH
Insights — page 2
Independent market and macro analysis. 143 Insights published and counting.
Why the Fed Might Hike Into an Oil Shock
On 28 August, at his first Jackson Hole symposium as Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh told an audience of central bankers that "inflation was running too high…
Inside Washington's 100-Year Venezuela Oil Deal
On 31 August the White House published a fact sheet setting out the mechanics of what President Trump had announced three days earlier as a historic oil agreement…
Japan's 3% Bond and the End of Cheap Money
On Tuesday afternoon in Tokyo, a number appeared on screens that has not been seen since Bill Clinton's first term. Japan's benchmark 10-year government bond yield…
Warsh, Bessent and Who Sets Interest Rates Now
Kevin Warsh is about to deliver his first Jackson Hole keynote as Federal Reserve chair on this Friday morning, three months into the job and into the most awkward…
Canada Matches Trump's Tariffs Dollar for Dollar
Trade negotiators from the United States and Canada spent three days at the offices of the US Trade Representative in Washington in the third week of August. On the…
The Plumbing Behind America's Economic D-Day
On Sunday evening, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent published an opinion piece in the Financial Times declaring that "at dawn begins an economic D-Day," which he…
Why AI Debt Is Showing Up in Mortgage Rates
What Duration Supply Actually Means A bond represents a loan with predetermined repayment terms. The borrower pays interest over a set period and returns principal…
What Treasury Buybacks Actually Do
On 19 August the US Treasury issued a short press release that quietly cancelled a schedule it had published exactly two weeks earlier. The department said it was…
Government Shutdown and What It Means for Markets
Last night, the U.S. government entered a shutdown. Congress failed to pass funding before the deadline, triggering a lapse in appropriations that forces many…
Are We on the Brink of World War 3
Throughout history, global conflicts have emerged not as singular events but as the result of rising tensions, alliances, and accidents that spiraled out of…
Natural Gas and the AI Energy Revolution
Artificial intelligence is progressing toward transforming economies and societies at an extraordinary pace. However, this advancement depends on a crucial but…
A New Alliance Reshapes the Middle East and Beyond
Saudi Arabia has just signed a mutual defense pact with Pakistan. The agreement is simple but monumental: "any attack on one country will be treated as an attack on…
The Fed Rate Cut Everyone Expects
The Federal Reserve finds itself at a critical juncture. Markets have been pricing in a 25 basis point cut for September, and expectations are running so high that…
A Short History of Financial Exuberance
Financial markets reflect human psychology. Fear and greed drive market cycles throughout history, despite evolving technology and regulation. "The details differ…
America's Job Market Is a Mirage
The Bureau of Labor Statistics disclosed "the largest job revision in over a decade," erasing 911,000 previously reported jobs created between March 2024 and March…
The Bigger Risk Behind the Weak Job Report
The latest job report confirmed what markets have been sensing for months: the United States economy is losing steam. Payroll growth came in far below expectations…
Why September Could Surprise Investors
September has a reputation on Wall Street that makes many investors uneasy. The month is known as the weakest period of the year for the S&P 500, with historical…
The Constitutional Clash Over Tariffs and Presidential Power
For years, tariffs have been one of the most controversial tools in U.S. economic policy. They sit at the intersection of global trade, domestic politics, and…