RESEARCH
Insights
Independent market and macro analysis. 138 Insights published and counting.
Putin's Yalta Pitch and the Summit Without Ukraine
On 9 October 2026, during a phone call with Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin raised the idea of a three-way meeting between himself, Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping…
Read the analysis
Anatomy of a $2 Trillion Chip Selloff
Over six trading sessions in mid-October, US semiconductor stocks shed roughly $1.64 trillion in market value. By 15 October, when the Philadelphia Semiconductor…
How One Chinese Chip Claim Broke the KOSPI
On Tuesday 13 October 2026, South Korea's benchmark KOSPI index closed at 6,035.35, down 5.46% on the day after falling more than 7% at one point during the…
Retail Stock Allocation Nears Dot-Com Levels
In November 2025, the American Association of Individual Investors asked its members the same question it has asked every month since late 1987: what percentage of…
The Credit Market Warning Stocks Are Ignoring
On September 30, 2026, the extra yield that investors demanded to hold the riskiest tier of American corporate debt crossed a line that bond desks watch closely…
7.6% Mortgages and a Housing Market That Froze
On Wednesday, September 30, 2026, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the United States touched 7.6%, the highest level since late 2023. That was the daily…
What America's 23-Year Iraq War Really Cost
On Wednesday 30 September 2026, the US military announced that the last American troops had left Iraq. Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi presided over the handover…
Why a Diesel Export Ban Could Raise Gas Prices
In late September 2026, Politico reported that the White House was preparing a plan to halt US diesel exports for 90 days. The trigger was straightforward: diesel…
Xi's State Visit and the November 10 Deadline
Xi Jinping lands in Washington today. China's foreign ministry confirmed on September 21 that the Chinese president will pay a state visit to the United States from…
Central Banks Are Tightening Together Again
On September 19, 2026, the Bank of Japan raised its short-term policy rate by 25 basis points, taking it from 1.00% to 1.25%. That is the highest Japanese policy…
Why Middle-Aged Americans Are Going Bankrupt
Americans aged 40 to 59 now account for 49.9% of all new consumer bankruptcies, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Consumer Credit Panel, which is…
The CLARITY Act and What Tuesday's Vote Means
Senate Republicans released their final version of the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act today and described it as their last, best and final offer. The Senate votes…
Bab el-Mandeb and the Second Oil Chokepoint
Houthi forces took the Red Sea port of Mocha on Thursday, September 10. The Houthis captured the port early in the day after government forces pulled out. Four…
Why the Fed Might Hike Into an Oil Shock
On 28 August, at his first Jackson Hole symposium as Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh told an audience of central bankers that "inflation was running too high…
Inside Washington's 100-Year Venezuela Oil Deal
On 31 August the White House published a fact sheet setting out the mechanics of what President Trump had announced three days earlier as a historic oil agreement…
Japan's 3% Bond and the End of Cheap Money
On Tuesday afternoon in Tokyo, a number appeared on screens that has not been seen since Bill Clinton's first term. Japan's benchmark 10-year government bond yield…
Warsh, Bessent and Who Sets Interest Rates Now
Kevin Warsh is about to deliver his first Jackson Hole keynote as Federal Reserve chair on this Friday morning, three months into the job and into the most awkward…
Canada Matches Trump's Tariffs Dollar for Dollar
Trade negotiators from the United States and Canada spent three days at the offices of the US Trade Representative in Washington in the third week of August. On the…