RESEARCH
Insights
Independent market and macro analysis. 133 Insights published and counting.
7.6% Mortgages and a Housing Market That Froze
On Wednesday, September 30, 2026, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the United States touched 7.6%, the highest level since late 2023. That was the daily…
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What America's 23-Year Iraq War Really Cost
On Wednesday 30 September 2026, the US military announced that the last American troops had left Iraq. Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi presided over the handover…
Why a Diesel Export Ban Could Raise Gas Prices
In late September 2026, Politico reported that the White House was preparing a plan to halt US diesel exports for 90 days. The trigger was straightforward: diesel…
Xi's State Visit and the November 10 Deadline
Xi Jinping lands in Washington today. China's foreign ministry confirmed on September 21 that the Chinese president will pay a state visit to the United States from…
Central Banks Are Tightening Together Again
On September 19, 2026, the Bank of Japan raised its short-term policy rate by 25 basis points, taking it from 1.00% to 1.25%. That is the highest Japanese policy…
Why Middle-Aged Americans Are Going Bankrupt
Americans aged 40 to 59 now account for 49.9% of all new consumer bankruptcies, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Consumer Credit Panel, which is…
The CLARITY Act and What Tuesday's Vote Means
Senate Republicans released their final version of the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act today and described it as their last, best and final offer. The Senate votes…
Bab el-Mandeb and the Second Oil Chokepoint
Houthi forces took the Red Sea port of Mocha on Thursday, September 10. The Houthis captured the port early in the day after government forces pulled out. Four…
Why the Fed Might Hike Into an Oil Shock
On 28 August, at his first Jackson Hole symposium as Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh told an audience of central bankers that "inflation was running too high…
Inside Washington's 100-Year Venezuela Oil Deal
On 31 August the White House published a fact sheet setting out the mechanics of what President Trump had announced three days earlier as a historic oil agreement…
Japan's 3% Bond and the End of Cheap Money
On Tuesday afternoon in Tokyo, a number appeared on screens that has not been seen since Bill Clinton's first term. Japan's benchmark 10-year government bond yield…
Warsh, Bessent and Who Sets Interest Rates Now
Kevin Warsh is about to deliver his first Jackson Hole keynote as Federal Reserve chair on this Friday morning, three months into the job and into the most awkward…
Canada Matches Trump's Tariffs Dollar for Dollar
Trade negotiators from the United States and Canada spent three days at the offices of the US Trade Representative in Washington in the third week of August. On the…
The Plumbing Behind America's Economic D-Day
On Sunday evening, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent published an opinion piece in the Financial Times declaring that "at dawn begins an economic D-Day," which he…
Why AI Debt Is Showing Up in Mortgage Rates
What Duration Supply Actually Means A bond represents a loan with predetermined repayment terms. The borrower pays interest over a set period and returns principal…
What Treasury Buybacks Actually Do
On 19 August the US Treasury issued a short press release that quietly cancelled a schedule it had published exactly two weeks earlier. The department said it was…
Government Shutdown and What It Means for Markets
Last night, the U.S. government entered a shutdown. Congress failed to pass funding before the deadline, triggering a lapse in appropriations that forces many…
Are We on the Brink of World War 3
Throughout history, global conflicts have emerged not as singular events but as the result of rising tensions, alliances, and accidents that spiraled out of…